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What are the Chances of That Happening?

Probability Examples That's the question that all probability formulas answer. Figuring probabilities is as simple as doing some division, or putting together some fractions that represent certain outcomes.

The Probability Formula

Calculating the probability of something occurring is as simple as taking the number of ways a certain outcome has of happening and dividing that by the total possible number of outcomes.

Examples

When flipping a coin, there's only one way you can land on heads. There are two possible outcomes, heads or tails, so the probability of getting heads is 1/2, or 0.5, or 50%, depending on how you want to state the probability.

Another example using a deck of cards: What is the probability of selecting a 9 from a deck of cards? There are 4 ways to select a 9 in a standard deck of cards. (The 9 of hearts, spades, clubs and diamonds.) Since there are 52 cards in a deck, the probability of picking a 9 is 4/52. This can be reduced to 1/13, or 7.6%, or 0.076, depending on how you want to state the probability.

A Little More About Probability

If something is certainly going to happen, then the probability is 100%. There is a 100% chance that a flipped coin will land on heads or tails, because it will certainly land on one of those two.

If something is completely impossible, then the probability is 0%.

ALL other probabilities are percentages, or numbers between 0% and 100%. Percentages can also be stated as fractions or in odds terms.

The probability of something happening plus the probability of it not happening always equals 100%. (The chances of a flipped coin landing on heads is 50%. The chances of it not landing on heads is 50%. 50%+50% = 100%)

To get the probability of two independent events, you multiply. For example, if you want to calculate the probability of flipping a coin twice and it landing on heads twice, you would multiple 1/2 by 1/2, or 50% by 50%.

The resulting probability is 1/4, or 25%. You can see this holding true by looking at all the potential outcomes:

coin 1, heads, coin 2, heads
coin 1 heads, coin 2 tails
coin 1 tails, coin 2 heads
coin 1 tails, coin 2 tails

There are four possible outcomes, and only one of those four results in both coins landing on heads.

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